Do AI-generated video-treatments offer methodological gains over traditional text-based vignettes? To address this, we conducted an experiment analyzing the effectiveness of an AI-generated video, long text with AI-generated images, plain long text, and a short-text vignette. We found that the AI-generated video did not elicit the largest shifts in policy preferences. Its effects were statistically indistinguishable from long-form text and even marginally weaker than the text-with-images treatment, suggesting that we should be cautious about the promise of AI-generated videos for experiments. Find the full pre-print here.

A mixed-methods study of British parliamentarians and the public finds elites more willing to defend NATO allies than the public. Counter-attitudinal public cues modestly shift elite preferences on defending allies. Qualitative evidence reveals heterogeneous elite approaches to public opinion, which becomes consequential when commitments are costly, sustained, morally salient or linked to mobilized constituencies. Find our pre-print here.

In a new pre-print, Michal Smetana and his colleagues present findings from a large survey-based longitudinal study which investigates changes in perceptions of NATO’s collective defense commitments across Western allies, Russia as well as British and German parliaments. The study finds a dramatic decline in how the public and elites perceive the credibility of U.S. commitments to NATO during the first year of Trump’s second administration. Find our pre-print here.

In their first ERC-funded article titled “Allied commitments and public support for military interventions: A cross-national experiment”, Michal Smetana, Marek Vranka, and Ondřej Rosendorf present findings from a cross-national survey experiment across six countries (N = 7,200) to show that while allied commitments boost public support for military intervention globally, this effect is weaker in non-Western, non-NATO countries. Find the full article here.

This report compares U.K. public and elite views on NATO’s collective defense amid global tensions and Donald Trump’s 2025 return to office. Parliamentarians were slightly more likely than the public to see NATO commitments as credible. Notably, they viewed the U.S. as less likely than the public to defend Latvia in case of a Russian invasion, but saw other NATO members (U.K., France, Germany, Poland, and Canada) as more likely to offer support.

This research report examines public opinion in five NATO countries on defending Taiwan amid heightened U.S.-China tensions during Trump’s second term. It finds strong support for defending Taiwan in North America but much lower support in Europe. Across all countries, defending NATO member Latvia received more backing than defending Taiwan.

This research report investigates Russian public views on NATO’s collective defense during early 2025, amid escalating U.S. rhetoric and halted aid to Ukraine. Survey data from January and March show a decline in perceived U.S. commitment to defend NATO allies, dropping from 53% to 48%.

Through surveys conducted in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Poland, and Russia, the research report explores how recent geopolitical developments—such as Trump’s rhetoric, the suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, and a rapprochement with Russia—have influenced public support for NATO defense commitments.

Thank you for the strong interest in our Ph.D. position! We will be sending invitation emails to the second round of the selection procedure during January. Candidates who did not progress to the second round will receive a rejection email during January.

We are happy to welcome you on our new website for the ERC-funded project Microcode. Here, you will be able to find all our research findings as well as relevant news to the topic of microfoundations of collective defence.