Research Reports
This research report investigates public opinion in five NATO countries on defending Taiwan amid rising tensions with China and the start of Trump’s second term in 2025. Survey data from March show broad support for defending Taiwan in North America (58% in the U.S., 60% in Canada), but significantly less in Europe (36% UK, 34% Germany, 25% Poland). Across all countries, support was consistently higher for defending NATO member Latvia than Taiwan.
Perceived U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense averaged only 41%, with Canada showing the most skepticism (32%) and the U.S. the most confidence (50%). Notably, partisan divides in the U.S. revealed Democrats were more supportive of defending Taiwan but less confident the U.S. would act, while Republicans were the opposite.
This research report investigates Russian public views on NATO’s collective defense during early 2025, amid escalating U.S. rhetoric and halted aid to Ukraine. Survey data from January and March show a decline in perceived U.S. commitment to defend NATO allies, dropping from 53% to 48%.
In contrast, belief in European NATO members’ willingness to act—especially the UK, France, and Germany—rose. Overall trust in NATO remained stable. Demographic trends reveal men and older Russians are more skeptical of U.S. involvement than women and younger respondents.
This report presents findings from a study within the European Research Council (ERC) project Microfoundations of Collective Defence (MICROCODE). It examines public perceptions of NATO’s collective defense credibility during the early months of Donald Trump’s second presidential term.
Through surveys conducted in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Poland, and Russia, the study explores how recent geopolitical developments—such as Trump’s rhetoric, the suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, and a rapprochement with Russia—have influenced public support for NATO defense commitments. The findings provide timely insights into the evolving public trust in NATO’s collective defense guarantees.